The presidential election ended with Donald Trump being named the 47th president of the United States. The AP called the race with Trump at 295 electoral votes and Harris at 226 (you need 270 to win). So, why did the election have the outcome it did? Why did Trump outperform Harris? What factors led to the election and who won?
Firstly, Trump has extremely impressive loyalty among his voters. Since running in 2016, Trump has acquired some of the most persistent and faithful voters. He has created a strong connection with his voters through his campaigns that worked in his favor. Trump gained increased support among young adult voters, going up 35 percent in 2020 to 42 percent in this election cycle. One reason for this is the popularity of Joe Rogan’s podcast, on which both Vice President Elect JD Vance and Trump appeared, particularly among young men.
The Trump team was focused on creating an agenda to mobilize voters with issues he knew they felt strongly about. For instance, Trump put out negative discourse in the South on Harris, specifically targeting her policies on transgender people. Trump knew his audience was against her policies on this matter, which gained him significant support, especially in the battleground state of Georgia. Another smart move made by Trump was his doubling down on the fact that he would veto a national abortion ban and would be leaving the issue of abortion up to the states. This statement gained him the support of a larger democratic number that may not have voted for him otherwise. Furthermore, this comment didn’t lose him any support, as he still had 81 percent of the evangelical vote, which was unchanged from the last election.
As for Harris, she had issues off the bat. First, she was campaigning behind the shadow of incumbent President Joe Biden. Biden has had meager approval ratings since his first year in office and has been an unpopular president with unpopular policies. Harris, as his acting Vice President, has supported him throughout his presidency and into her campaign. Prior to his decision to drop out and the nomination of her as Democratic nominee, she endorsed Biden wholeheartedly, even though he was showing signs of being mentally unwell. After he dropped out, Harris put her total effort into her own campaign, making a full 180 on her complete trust and support that Biden could seek reelection. This reflected poorly on Harris, making people question her as a presidential candidate. Biden’s reluctance to drop out of the race until the last second he could also put a dent in Harris’ campaign, as the Democratic party had to rush and rally behind a new candidate.
Harris also had issues with her agenda and how it played out for her. She chose to focus her campaign on reproductive rights, mainly to incentivize women to come out and vote. This didn’t do anything for her in the long run, as the women’s vote did not increase from its 2020 levels. Harris also lost some Democratic male votes, going down from 48 percent to 43 percent.
She also was building from the Biden administration and his policies, which were wildly unpopular and, therefore, didn’t go over well with voters. Harris refused to separate from Biden and his policies despite their little support. Trump honed in on his economic policy, which pulled in significant support as inflation was at an average of 1.9 percent during his presidency. Biden’s average was 5.2 percent, with the highest levels of inflation being at 9.1 percent in June of 2022, which was the highest inflation increase the country has seen in 40 years. Choosing not to separate from Biden’s policies lost Harris a lot of support.
Overall, Trump has gained a loyalty that is unmatched in modern politics. He has policies that people know, and he knows how to work a crowd to his advantage. Harris had struggles separating herself from the unpopular incumbent president, Biden, and didn’t focus on issues that may have been vital to winning the race. Overall, both candidates held strong campaigns, and the 2024 election will surely be one that goes down in the history books.
